What’s Happening in the Maui Market Right Now

If you've been watching the Maui market from the sidelines, here's an honest, no-hype look at where things actually stand.

Single-family homes: bouncing, not climbing

Here's the thing about Maui's single-family median price this year — it hasn't been climbing steadily, it's been bouncing around. January came in at $1,445,000 (up 20.4% year-over-year), March dropped to $1,200,000 (down 7.3%), May fell further to $1,174,500 (down 9.0%), and June popped back up to $1,356,975 (up 4.4%). With only 70 to 90 single-family homes selling island-wide in a typical month, that median can swing hard depending on which handful of homes happen to close — it's not a clean trend line, and no single month tells the real story.

The more telling number is this: the average sale price for Q1 2026 was down 17.4% year-over-year. Combined with inventory that's risen noticeably since 2024, that's the real story for buyers — more choices, more room to negotiate, and more listings showing up below that eye-catching median than you'd expect. June itself was a strong month on paper — 78 homes sold, up 16.4% from a year ago, with days on market dropping to 133 — but that's one good month inside a much bumpier year, not a sign prices are back on the rise.

And the condo market? Struggling more than single-family

Condos are telling a genuinely different story. In June, 88 condos sold compared to 58 a year earlier — sales up over 50%. But the median price fell 8.8% to $625,000, and units sat on the market for 172 days on average, up 41% from last year. That combination — way more deals, but at lower prices and taking longer — usually means it's the lower-priced units that are moving while higher-end condos sit. It's not a sign that overall demand is surging.

A real driver here: Maui County's phase-out of short-term vacation rentals in apartment-zoned buildings has cooled investor interest in that specific type of condo — this is a policy effect, not just a shift in buyer mood. On top of that, rising insurance premiums, HOA and association fees, and ongoing post-wildfire rebuilding dynamics on parts of the island are adding real financing pressure specifically on condo owners and buyers — a squeeze that doesn't show up in the median price number by itself.

(For what it's worth, vacant land sales stayed flat at 12 for the month, but the median price dropped sharply — that's really a reflection of which specific lots happened to sell rather than a broader land market story; the sample size is just too small to read much into.)

What this means if you're thinking about buying

You've got real room to negotiate on single-family homes, and even more so on condos, where sellers are adjusting expectations. There's no need to rush — with inventory up and days-on-market elevated across the board, you can take your time, though well-priced homes in desirable areas can still move quickly. If you're specifically shopping condos, understanding a building's short-term rental status is worth doing early, since it affects both price and how long a unit might sit. And with rates still a factor, getting pre-approved and knowing your real monthly payment matters more than ever before you start touring.

A note on timing

Nobody can call the exact “bottom” of a market, and this has been a real multi-year adjustment rather than a quick dip. But historically, buying during a stretch of elevated inventory and buyer leverage tends to work out better long-term than trying to time the exact peak.

If you want to talk through what this means for your specific budget, timeline, or neighborhood… reach out! I'm happy to pull comps and walk through real options. No pressure, just information.